For those who aren’t aware, the existence of an Iranian nuclear weapons program really isn’t something that can be debated. I strongly oppose this war. In fact, I think an Iranian bomb might actually be a good thing. Could really serve to stabilize the region.
But people are taking the Iraq war metaphor way too far. Iran has undeniably had a nuclear weapons program. Now, whether the program is actually currently active? That’s a whole other question. It’s quite possible it’s been dormant, I’m not aware of what the most reliable sources say on the current state of things.
But one thing that is undeniable is that Iran has had a nuke program. The smoking gun was found in 2023. It was found by the IAEA to have enriched uranium up to 83.7%.
Bomb grade is 90%. Reactor grade is around 3-5%. And the enrichment process, already a logistical nightmare, becomes exponentially more difficult to do the higher the enrichment you want. Imagine the difference between a household allergy air filter and a computer chip fab clean room. Same fundamental job, completely different levels of difficulty.
There is just no reason to go to all that effort except if you want a bomb. Sure, having a domestically sourced fuel supply, all under your control, is a nice boon. But adding bomb-making capability to that boon is not just some minor add-on to a reactor enrichment plant. You’re increasing the cost by an order of magnitude at least. Beyond any doubt, Iran has at least put a lot of effort in to obtaining a nuclear weapon.
If you wanted to be the most generous to Tehran, you could argue that they were trying to position themselves in a near-breakout state. So they enrich a stockpile just right up to the edge of bomb capability, and then stop there. Don’t actually cross the line fully to bomb grade but put yourself a short bit of effort away from one. If you wanted to be the most generous to Iran, based on what we indisputably know, you could argue they paused their race to the bomb with their toes a meter shy of the finish line.
Good faith arguments can be made about the current state of Iran’s weapons program. But the existence of a nuclear bomb program is indisputable. There are no more credible sources on these matters than the IAEA. They do not fuck around. The IAEA was built to ensure compliance with nuclear nonproliferation treaties. It was built so that nation states and their paranoid military leaders would have faith on their reports. Imagine the level of credibility that requires. If the IAEA said that Iran enriched to 83.7%, you can be damn sure Iran enriched to 83.7%. They are way more credible than any national government.
Do not take the Iraq war metaphor too far. It is indisputable that Iran has poured enormous resources into producing bomb-grade material, or, at the very least, near-bomb grade material.
But the existence of a nuclear bomb program is indisputable.
You seem to know a lot about the situation. Could you shed some light on why the IAEA as well as the American intelligence community are disputing this? Do you know why and how they came to the assessment that Iran hasn’t been trying to build nukes since 2003, given everything you just said (which, obviously, they’re aware of)?
Tbf… Iraq indisputably had WMDs as well in the past. They had and had used them against Iran and the Kurds, they were dismantled and destroyed during Operation Desert Storm. The lie was that they were rebuilding them.
In fact, I think an Iranian bomb might actually be a good thing. Could really serve to stabilize the region.
This is correct and why they’re upset, having a nuke means they can’t easily be fucked with which is why nk doesn’t do much time and money developing theirs.
Now, whether the program is actually currently active? That’s a whole other question. It’s quite possible it’s been dormant, I’m not aware of what the most reliable sources say on the current state of things.
Our own intelligence says it’s not active but they are or were enriching to industrial levels for power generation.
The smoking gun was found in 2023. It was found by the IAEA to have enriched uranium up to 83.7%.
Not really, they found experiments to enrich and very small volumes of highly enriched uranium which in itself is not illegal, many universities have access to enriched uranium so a country should have no issue possessing amounts far far to small to be used in a bomb. You’re basically saying they can’t even experiment in particle physics which is insane and immoral.
If the US and pisrahell terrorist states have them so can Iran.
They didn’t have a nuclear WEAPON program for decades.
They honored the JPCOA, the US broke it.
I really hope they get one from Pakistan, as they said they may deliver them.
Not that they need them since they’re doing fine turning pissrahell into Gaza with just balistics.
Heartwarming.
For those who aren’t aware, the existence of an Iranian nuclear weapons program really isn’t something that can be debated. I strongly oppose this war. In fact, I think an Iranian bomb might actually be a good thing. Could really serve to stabilize the region.
But people are taking the Iraq war metaphor way too far. Iran has undeniably had a nuclear weapons program. Now, whether the program is actually currently active? That’s a whole other question. It’s quite possible it’s been dormant, I’m not aware of what the most reliable sources say on the current state of things.
But one thing that is undeniable is that Iran has had a nuke program. The smoking gun was found in 2023. It was found by the IAEA to have enriched uranium up to 83.7%.
https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/documents/gov2023-8.pdf
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/un-report-says-uranium-particles-enriched-up-to-83-7-percent-found-in-iran
Bomb grade is 90%. Reactor grade is around 3-5%. And the enrichment process, already a logistical nightmare, becomes exponentially more difficult to do the higher the enrichment you want. Imagine the difference between a household allergy air filter and a computer chip fab clean room. Same fundamental job, completely different levels of difficulty.
There is just no reason to go to all that effort except if you want a bomb. Sure, having a domestically sourced fuel supply, all under your control, is a nice boon. But adding bomb-making capability to that boon is not just some minor add-on to a reactor enrichment plant. You’re increasing the cost by an order of magnitude at least. Beyond any doubt, Iran has at least put a lot of effort in to obtaining a nuclear weapon.
If you wanted to be the most generous to Tehran, you could argue that they were trying to position themselves in a near-breakout state. So they enrich a stockpile just right up to the edge of bomb capability, and then stop there. Don’t actually cross the line fully to bomb grade but put yourself a short bit of effort away from one. If you wanted to be the most generous to Iran, based on what we indisputably know, you could argue they paused their race to the bomb with their toes a meter shy of the finish line.
Good faith arguments can be made about the current state of Iran’s weapons program. But the existence of a nuclear bomb program is indisputable. There are no more credible sources on these matters than the IAEA. They do not fuck around. The IAEA was built to ensure compliance with nuclear nonproliferation treaties. It was built so that nation states and their paranoid military leaders would have faith on their reports. Imagine the level of credibility that requires. If the IAEA said that Iran enriched to 83.7%, you can be damn sure Iran enriched to 83.7%. They are way more credible than any national government.
Do not take the Iraq war metaphor too far. It is indisputable that Iran has poured enormous resources into producing bomb-grade material, or, at the very least, near-bomb grade material.
You seem to know a lot about the situation. Could you shed some light on why the IAEA as well as the American intelligence community are disputing this? Do you know why and how they came to the assessment that Iran hasn’t been trying to build nukes since 2003, given everything you just said (which, obviously, they’re aware of)?
Tbf… Iraq indisputably had WMDs as well in the past. They had and had used them against Iran and the Kurds, they were dismantled and destroyed during Operation Desert Storm. The lie was that they were rebuilding them.
This is correct and why they’re upset, having a nuke means they can’t easily be fucked with which is why nk doesn’t do much time and money developing theirs.
Our own intelligence says it’s not active but they are or were enriching to industrial levels for power generation.
Not really, they found experiments to enrich and very small volumes of highly enriched uranium which in itself is not illegal, many universities have access to enriched uranium so a country should have no issue possessing amounts far far to small to be used in a bomb. You’re basically saying they can’t even experiment in particle physics which is insane and immoral.
If the US and pisrahell terrorist states have them so can Iran.
They didn’t have a nuclear WEAPON program for decades.
They honored the JPCOA, the US broke it.
I really hope they get one from Pakistan, as they said they may deliver them.
Not that they need them since they’re doing fine turning pissrahell into Gaza with just balistics.
Heartwarming.
https://x.com/stiwari1510/status/1936451876318310839