On BBC’s HARDtalk 5 years ago, Roger Hallam was slammed across the board for saying billions of lives were at risk. The liberal climate movements tried to refute and play down the existential risks ahead. The last few months have shown ever more clearly that he was right. After all, what do we actually think the “end of civilization” will look like?
Several new scientific papers from Ripple and Pearce have outlined that not only are billions of lives on the line, but that “richer humans will be responsible for [the] killing”. This month, the NASA Climate Scientist, Peter Kalmus, also added his voice to that position. The time for shying away from our existential reality is over. The precautionary principle dictates that these realities form and guide the mission of our lives - that only a revolution to change who makes the big decisions is going to save us.
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The US/NATO (and other neocolonial powers such as Russia) doesn’t need to be “better off”, all they need to do is lose enough force projection that the rest of the world can make progress without getting “liberated” in response.
So many socialist revolutions would have made things better if not for the neocolonial powers using every tool in their arsenal to ruin them.
That said, I do think liberal-democratic revolutions - French, American, colour, etc. - have been improvements. I don’t think absolute monarchical colonial empires would have been any less inclined to ruin the planet.
Also, I’m not quite sure where the boundary between colonial independence war and revolution lies. The American and Haitian revolutions are called such, but the Indonesian war for independence isn’t. Many wars of independence/revolutions(?) unambiguously improved things, though again there is a lot of overlap with neocolonial fuckery that has nothing to do with the quality of local governance.
So I would be willing to roll the dice on a revolution/civil war/economic collapse in NATO countries and/or Russia tomorrow. In the rest of the world I would want to wait for good prefiguration. Though practically there is so much anti-revolutionary propaganda in NATO that I think the only way to break through is with good prefiguration.
Everybody knows the “charismatic leader” cynicism by heart. The only way to succeed at revolution in a NATO country is by showing you can topple internal charismatic leaders.