Also important to know, if democrats take back the house, Johnson would no longer be speaker at the time the presidential election is certified. It’s the next congress, not the current one, that will certify the vote. New congress is seated on January 3rd 2025, and the presidential election certification is on January 6th 2025.
I hate these hyperbolic headlines describing some tiny poll movement in a single poll well within the margin of error, describing it a some definitive clear change in support.
Here’s the times sienna poll today for instance, another high quality pollster, where she went from tied to now 3% ahead and is leading for the first time in that poll since July.
If the race is truly a 3 point gap right now, and the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent, you’re going to see polls with her everywhere from one behind to 7 ahead. It’s a bad idea to hyper scrutinize or draw big conclusions from tiny changes in one poll.
This is why we so desperately need the voting rights act back. It used to be that changes like this required pre clearance before taking effect, and any challenges be worked out before hand.
Another terrible supreme court decision courtesy conservatives/Republicans who don’t respect the right to vote.
So the model image you posted above there says it’s more likely that Trump wins the election than it is flipping two heads in a row while flipping a coin. This is saying it’s less likely for Trump to win than Hillary to win, but something that could fairly easily happen still. These aren’t poll numbers, where 70-30 would be a massive blow out. This is a 30% chance of winning for Trump, closer to a coin flip than a sure thing.
A lot of other models were saying something ridiculous like Clinton had 95% chance to win or something. Nate Silver’s model seems better than others based on this, if anything.
Unfortunately the interest rate is specifically set by law and tied to 10 year treasury bill rates. This cannot be altered with an executive action, would need congress to change the law.
https://studentaid.gov/understand-aid/types/loans/interest-rates#who-sets
That’s why the executive orders are focused on things like minimum payments, how long it takes to get forgiveness, who qualifies, etc, because the laws give the department of education more latitude to adjust those things (or are supposed to at least, weird rulings from republican judges notwithstanding).
It wasn’t the same thing, all three of them were different plans using different justifications based on different laws. One was a blanket forgiveness based on laws allowing for adjustments of student loans in emergencies. One is need based or other circumstance based forgiveness based on a much earlier law giving the department of education wide latitude to make adjustments. And one was adjustments to the income based repayment plans based on the laws establishing those (this has happened many times in the past, such as the establishment of the PAYE and REPAYE plans).
It’s especially egregious that judges are blocking the SAVE plan, as many similar adjustments have been made to income based repayment plans previously with no one taking any issue.
You can say it’s not enough if you want, but you can’t say it’s nothing. Certainly gets Netanyahu upset at least.
It also includes restoration of the child tax credit, just like we had during the pandemic when monthly checks were sent out to all parents and the child poverty rate was cut in half overnight. This is just an even bigger payment for the year they are a newborn.
That gas line goes right into Ukraine, they could have blown it up anytime they wanted safely in their own territory. So I’m not sure that makes much sense. They have not done this previously to avoid angering EU allies funding them, as some still rely on it.
I think more likely explanations are it helps make it easier to strike and and shut down a very important rail route for Russian re supply, it brings the war to the Russian people in a way they can’t ignore, makes Putin look weak, draws Russian troops away from other fronts, and if the land is held gives Ukraine a bargaining chip in any future negotiations with Russia.
Trying to decipher his words is like dementia astrology, who knows. If he doesn’t know what he’s talking about, we surely can’t either.
Yes this is the direct quote the article refers to. He rambles nonsense, often self contradicting, and then people in the media try to fashion it into coherent points for him, leading to a fake impression of competency, misleading the public and voters. This is the man who had to have his national security briefings summarized into a few brief bullet points with pictures, and he was apparently still unable to read them.
If he was ever going to follow through with it at all (doubtful), it was a hollow pledge that wouldn’t have affected most of the tipped income or helped most tipped workers in the country anyways:
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/trump-eliminate-taxes-tips-restaurant-workers-wages
Now things that Harris proposes like re expanding the child tax credit (refundable meaning paid out even if the person doesn’t pay taxes) could provide a huge boost to workers with kids, for just one example. Or for another, Trump’s proposed tarrifs costing each family $1700 a year on average. Or another, Harris continuing to appoint labor friendly individuals to the NLRB, helping to fight employers engaging in union busting activities. Easy choice.
“Google, nobody called from Google. One of the things like doing a show like yours, your show, you know, you see it on Fox, but when you really see it is all over the place, they take clips of your show that you’re doing right now with me and if I do a good job, they’re gonna vote for me, they’re gonna vote for me because it’s not just on Fox, it’s on Fox is a smaller part of it. You’re on all over this, those little beautiful cell phones you’re on, you’re all over the place. You have a product, you have a great product. You have a great brand. So you have to get out, you have to get out, you have to do things like your show and other shows and Google has been very bad. They’ve been very irresponsible and I have a feeling that Google is gonna be close to shut down”
Can anyone help? I don’t have a senile narcissist to English translator!
Lost_My_Mind
Well the username is apt at least
Look number one, whether or not she is xy has not been confirmed. It was reported by a Russian controlled organization only after she beat a Russian fighter, and they haven’t actually released their results or methods.
Second, what the posted article is referring to, if she was indeed xy (which is just suspect Russian heresay at this point), is androgen insensitivity syndrome. Meaning she wouldn’t be able to derive benefit from testosterone anyways. This is also different from trans individuals on a number of levels. Though Russia of course sees it as beneficial both for smearing anyone that beats their own athletes, as well as stoking popular lgbt hatred in their own country.
The only story here is Russia co opting international sports organizations for their own purposes once again, just like when they had state organized doping of their athletes that went all the way to the top involving the flipping FSB. Now they are also using it to try and spread fear and hate of trans individuals, even though it wouldn’t be trans in this case it would be intersex if what they said is true, and we have no actual confirmations that she is intersex anyway. I’ll believe it when an organization not controlled by Russia shows it (and even if they were correct it’s very likely she wouldn’t be deriving any advantages from it).
They’ve made similar unsubstantiated claims against another boxer. They still haven’t released any specifics of their testing, and they only made these claims after they claimed world championship titles in each case. What a coincidence.
I doubt either of them is actually xy. This Russian boxing organization was banned by the international community for good reason.
There’s nothing in the source you linked about Maduro releasing results online and some “hack” not allowing it. Maduro has not released any results.
The source you linked does report all the things I’ve said in my comment again though.
And it’s not just rhetoric, he is jailing his opposition.
Michael Steele is commenting and was a former RNC head, so he probably has some kind of idea of the scale of this being impressive. Would have been better to have some sort of past numbers published for comparison though as you say.
The government did not release them, and you’ve provided no source for your claim. Also, showing up to a courthouse as they’re all rounded up and being thrown in a jail? Give me a break. Many countries are calling for the release of the results, including leftist governments like Colombia and Brazil.
Evidence was literally uploaded by the opposition, and has been analyzed by multiple news organizations already who agree with their conclusions. Not to mention the exit polls and other available public evidence.
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/masked-assailants-ransack-venezuela-opposition-134849213.html?guccounter=1
Here’s another organization that independently gathered many of the polling receipts with similar results:
The opposition leader is in hiding (who was barred by Maduro’s government for running, among many other tactics with government powers Maduro used to try to tilt the vote in his favor). Maduro has rounded up over 1000 members of the opposition already to try and prevent this data from being gathered and take more political prisoners. The Carter Center, who Maduro government themselves invited as a monitor, said that:
“Venezuela’s electoral process did not meet international standards of electoral integrity at any of its stages and violated numerous provisions of its own national laws.”
The only one fighting transparency and trying to hide results here is Maduro. These tallies were all stored on qr codes. Maduro could have released them at anytime and chose not to. Could have instantly been released the night of the election, as they were coming in if he wanted. Can’t believe people on here are still falling for this dictator’s bald faced lies.
Polling errors are not predictable beforehand. If they were, we wouldn’t have polling errors. In 2022 for instance there was polling error in favor of democrats not against (or at least too much emphasis on polls with errors in Republican favor).
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html
We can’t know the electorate beforehand, so poll weighting and deciding who is a likely voter is always going to involve some guesswork. So the opposite of what you say is true as well, if there is a small polling error that overstates Trump’s support it would have Kamala sweeping every swing state.
But the polls show a close election, all we can do is do our best to do things that help her win. Like voting early to make sure our vote gets in no matter what, encouraging people we know to register and vote, volunteering, canvassing, donating, etc.