Cheney not bringing a single voter with her. Harris has made misstep after misstep after the campaign and this continuously rightwards shift is going to lose the election for her.

Show me how I changed the standard?

I get it. You’re a toxic child who can’t argue something in its merits. First it’s not an argument. Then the opponent must be a bot. But actually, you just don’t have the ability to respond.

I am 100 not saying the polls are wrong. However 538 completely changed when Nate Silver left. They are a shell of their former self and their models are a joke. No one should be taking them seriously. The weights and polls 538 was including in it’s aggregate has Biden to win when he was polling at 37%.

If you want good polllingnirnmodelinf silver bullets, nates personal project is far superior.

I am 💯 a polls nerd and check my posts for some analysis I’ve done.

Go back to the data on 2020. Biden under performed his polling across the board. He was leading and did win, but not nearly the the margins he should have.

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same. never heard of it

The nuts is a poker term. It means having the high hand, or the best possible hand based on the board.

So your claim is that the set of claims I made contain no claims.

oh ok, yeah .sure.

Something you dont agree with <> Something incoherent

You don’t get to decide if you have the nuts or not.

I’ve put more time into getting Democrats and progressives elected than probably any one on this forum. Tens of thousands of hours. Both volunteer and professionally.

All that matters right now is Harris. She’s the one blowing it and only she can fix it. She needs to take a strong stand about conditioning aid to Israel.

You think those things are important? Go do them yourself.

I mean, do you think she has the nuts?

is why we can’t give in to defeatism

No, we can’t engage in self delusion.

and it’s dangerous to frame discussion with the notion that Harris is “on track to […] lose.”

No, its dangerous to stand in denial of the evidence. Hopes not going to get you there. The evidence we have right now suggest we might not even have to worry about SC fuckery.

The ONLY thing that can be done is to stop with this trite, delusional thinking, and to stop advocating for this candidate blindly. That kind of toxic blindness is why the candidate is suffering. Accepting less from your candidate means they don’t do as well on election day. We need to demand better from her because if she doesn’t do better, she wont win.

Cheney’s endorsement is offering Kamala negative votes. Whoever is advising on this should be fired. Also, Tim Miller is the absolutely last person on the planet to take any electoral advice or strategy from, and I personally advocate that he sit on a cactus.

eat it

Our Revolution better get the fuck on it then. Clocks about run out and shit is not looking great.

If it comes to the supreme court, its over. Harris needs a minimum of a two state win over Trump. That means she needs to pick up one or both AZ and NC, and PA. GA is out because its basically automatic recount fuckery.

There is another thread about this elsewhere, but way the table is set, it looks like Harris is on track to either a) lose outright, or b) lose at the SC.

Lemmy reacted the same with regards to addressing the reality around Biden’s chances of winning and his obvious failings at being able to turn things around. Moderation have cultivated a toxic culture of radical rejection of any kind of criticism of Democrats. There were bans about it.

However, this condition is not unique to Lemmy. Its symptomatic across corporate/ cable news as well. The inability to accurately and faithfully address your own teams performance is absolutely hampering the left/ Democrats ability to be successful in this election. We need to be more critical of the people supposed to represent us because we need them to be actually capable of winning the election. The stakes are too high to leave entire sections of the actually registered Democratic electorate for Harris to be chasing Republicans (when that strategy has been demonstrated to fail for almost 30 years.

We need Harris to do better, not just because its the moral and right thing to do, but because we abso-fucking-lutely can not afford to lose this election. Don’t hide a candidates weaknesses, bring them up and force them to address them. Force them to become a stronger, more electable candidate. I mean jesus fucking christ, your opponent is a felon and rapist. Harris can’t do better than a 2% spread on DJT? Do fucking better Harris. Stop chasing the fucking Cheney war criminal families endorsement and go apologize to the uncommitted crowd.

So write off GA. Harris has to win Either NC or AZ to make it such that TWO state level results would have to be forced to the SC. Whichever Sunbelt state +1.

It’s hard. “Doing ok” isn’t fucking good enough and the apologists willing to make excuses for Democrats at every turn are the very reason Democrats struggle so hard to do anything legislatively or electorally.

538 is meaninglessly bad after Silvers exit. I get that you don’t get it, but if Kamala doesn’t “win by a landslide”, which would be 55% plus in the national aggregate and winning basically all of WI/MI/MN/PA and at least one of AZ/NC/GA by numbers which do not warrant a recount, Republicans win.

They key that you need to understand is that break even, is actually losing badly for Democrats. The deck is literally stacked against them. And its going to be worse this time. Republicans realize that all they need to do is, if it comes down to one state, get that to the supreme court and they win. The Democratic path to victory has to be effectively uncontested/ insurmountable. Anything less and its Bush v Gore all over again.