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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • But Russian soldiers on the intercepted calls appeared doubtful that they would have enough commanders to lead the new units, or enough weapons and ammunition to arm them 979 days into Moscow’s invasion.

    From what I can guess, I don’t think they need to hold a gun or fire any bullets to accomplish what Moscow wants out of them. Russia will march those North Koreans out in “meat waves” to absorb Ukrainian bullets and drones while forcing Ukrainian defenders to reveal themselves to shoot the North Koreans forcing themselves be targeted by artillery.



  • I saw one of these and it took me a second to realize it was a scam. I’m a spaceflight geek and as much as a tool as Musk is, there’s heavy overlap in spaceflight and SpaceX.

    On Youtube there was a purported “live launch update” livestream. I was confused because I knew there were no launches scheduled that day of any kind much less SpaceX. What I saw was Musk on a stage outdoors apparently talking about a new SpaceX crypto product and the voice, which sounded exactly like Musk’s talked about giving away free crypto the only thing you had to do was buy it, then share you wallet info and Musk would double it.

    Besides this smelling very suspect, I realized that there were never close shots when musk was talking, so you couldn’t see the lips match the words being said audibly and I knew it was a scam.

    I can absolutely see how the greedy would get scammed by this.






  • If Harris wins, they can ask for a cease fire, and then will the US and Europe deny it?

    I think a ceasefire will be denied. There was an unofficial ceasefire in 2014 with the taking of Crimea. A month later Russia invaded Donbass. Until Feb 2022, the frontlines were fairly fixed. Then in Feb 2022 Russia invaded Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Kharkiv while trying to take even more Ukranian territory.

    A ceasefire from Russia only means they will be back to take more land later. That, and Russia’s war machine is running out of equipment. Unless China suddenly starts supplying tanks and armored vehicles, in 6 months to a year Russia will be fielding horses for assults.



  • I remember back before 2020 there was tons of mountain and cabins and homes and stuff like that anywhere from 2:50 to 500K. Now you won’t find a single one less than 800k…

    WFH and good satellite internet were a bit of a game changer here. You could now live in a remote place and work a job with a high income.

    Regular homes are just as bad. I’m seeing homes in my area that sold for around $200 to 300K in 2019, now they are 500k and above.

    Supply and demand here. There aren’t enough houses being build for people (and private investors) that want to buy them. The price rises.

    I don’t understand how this makes any sense? Salaries were not doubled, but somehow the price of all homes are now twice as much.

    Lots to unpack with this one. First, some people’s salaries were doubled. There has been some niche sectors of industry that have seen large year over year increases in income, specifically some STEM fields. Second, housing price rises are not linear across all pricepoints. The cheaper house are going up significantly faster than more expensive homes. Why? Because there are more people shopping at the lower pricepoints. When we bought our new-to-us house a few years ago buying a house $150k more expensive than the house were were living in got us very little more house. However, buying a house $250k more expensive got a lot more house (larger, better neighborhood, more outside space, etc).




  • From the updates I’ve seen, I get the sense that Russia is fighting through the culmination of their multi-front offensive in hopes of making gains ahead of the muddy season.

    This is what confuses me about Russia’s choosing these huge losses in the past couple of months. In less than week the USA will have submitted all ballots for the Presidential election (with likely another week of confusion and complaints until the victor is clear). If Trump wins, he will destroy US and possibly European support for Ukraine causing Ukraine to be wiped out by Russia. If Harris wins, then at least the amount of military and economic support continues as it has so far, or it could get even larger. Even if Harris keeps the support the same, Putin doesn’t cannot take 4 more years at the current rate of attrition, and he’ll have to withdraw or be kicked out when the Russian well runs dry.

    So when the answer is less than a month away, why double down on meat waves with such tremendous losses? Why not wait for the results of the election defensively, while building up your forces, and either go forward with attacking a then weakened Ukraine under Trump, or turn around and use your forces at home to attempt to suppress your population to keep Putin in power under a Harris win?







  • Why is it that when a more progressive comedian tells a joke that everyone says it’s funny and doesn’t hurt anyone’s feelings, but when a conservative comedian tells a joke that it’s racist or sexist or transphobic or deeply unsettling?

    Nearly exclusively from my observation modern conservative comedians are “punching down”. Meaning conservative are usually in a position of power, authority, or inclusion and the conservative joke is belittling those with little to no power, authority, or inclusion. Contrast this with most progressive comedians that are “punching up” where they are calling out the powerful, putting down the authority, casting the included myopic.

    Perhaps a better way to answer your question is to re-frame it:

    “Why is it celebrated when the bullied stand up and punch their bully, but when a bully punches someone they are bullying it is deeply unsettling?”

    The answer is obviously that bullying is wrong.