Really interesting analysis by Anders. I hadn’t considered how risky it is for Russia to gamble on their forces being able to hold out for another 6 months. If my very limited understanding of battle fatigue from WWII is correct, the average soldier can be expected to last about 200 days without rotation.

I think Russia committed their last VDV reserves about a month ago to the Tokmak front. The mobiks have been complaining in videos about their lack of rotation and poor supplies recently. I’d say best case scenario for Russia, the paratroopers will be able to hold out, but the mobiks and regular troops will break. I don’t think that’s a very good situation for the occupiers to be in.