It does feel like more missiles are getting through.
That would be because Trump started the Iran War and got all the missile interceptors fired off so now it becomes a political question whether a country sacrifices their limited domestic stocks to send to Ukraine…
Interception of everything else is happening at an extremely high rate to the point that the classic propeller powered shahed is now strategically ineffective at penetrating Ukrainian layered air defenses. Russia has been forced to invest more into each flying bomb and transition to much more costly jet powered flying bombs which while inherently much more difficult to intercept don’t offer any serious increase in firepower. To put it another way, russia has to spend more and more to get the same bang for their buck, much much more. Smaller rocket engines are getting cheaper and 3D printing promises even further price cuts but I doubt jet engines will ever become more fuel efficient and practical than traditional propeller aircraft, small jet engines have undeniable advantages but efficiency isn’t really one of them.
Look up prices for a basic RC electric or fossil fuel engine and compare them to RC jet engine prices and then increase ALL component costs by the jump in price between the two engine types (the airframe must be made much more sturdy… for what is still a onetime use craft) and then look back at the jet engine shaheds/flying bombs.
You know what is a better investment than mass producing flying jet bombs? Make the flying jet bombs significantly bigger to get efficiency of scale with payload, create the option for humans to fly them and make realtime decisions from within them, and spend money on an airframe you plan to keep and use over and over again.
Mass drone attacks are less cost efficient than maintaining a layered air defense backpinned by manned capable traditional fighter-bomber jets. The reason is again as russia makes each flying bomb more and more capable in order to successfully penetrate Ukrainian defenses, the more premium the components get the more of a waste it is. Perhaps the biggest area this goes for are sensors, a large jet powered manned capable fighter-bomber you can afford to deck out with the most capable sensors you can get your hands on… but what about a shitty one time use jet engine flying bomb? The more premium components you are forced to use, the less effective the strategy is for mass one way drone waves.
I don’t see how you get around this with mass waves of flying bombs, inherently if you look at the game theory larger interceptors that are meant to be used many many times are always going to be able to spot one time use assets before they are spotted themselves, the only way to change that equation is to wayyyy overspend on sensors for the one time use flying bomb or to introduce a second platform with higher powered sensors and the ability to direct the drone… and while that is and will happen that still isn’t a solution because the other side will surely do the same.


