Although the United States has been the world’s preeminent military power for decades, it apparently cannot fight a regional power such as Iran for more than a few months before experiencing an armaments crisis. Since hostilities with Tehran began on February 28, the U.S. has reportedly used up two-thirds of its Patriot missile interceptors, more than a third of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors, and a third or more of its prewar stock of Tomahawk cruise missiles. The rate of consumption is all the more striking because a shaky cease-fire had halted most fighting for months. Based on recent production patterns, replenishing the supply of weaponry will take several years.
Making America’s challenge still more daunting is a major shift in war-fighting technology toward cheap, unmanned aerial vehicles. The United States and its allies in the Persian Gulf have been forced to use expensive, advanced air-defense systems—such as Patriot PAC-3 missiles that each cost millions of dollars and have a long production cycle—to shoot down Iranian drones that can be swiftly assembled for about $30,000.
The munitions shortfall doesn’t just affect the current war. It also sends a worrisome message to allies around the world: The United States has been caught off guard by the latest evolution of warfare and lacks the armaments-production capacity to adapt quickly. Suddenly, relying on American military technology looks far less reliable as a security strategy than it did before President Trump went to war with Iran. And in the long run, governments that counted on the United States to equip their military are going to need a Plan B.
In 2017, Future of Life Institute made a short film about the possibilities of autonomous killer drones. It seems even more likely now that it did then.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slaughterbots
https://youtu.be/9fa9lVwHHqg
I’ve seen that. Imagine that, except a million unleashed upon a city. That would kill a number of people comparable to a nuclear explosion. Considering how expensive nukes are, it’s possible the cost of a million drones could be similar to the cost of one nuclear missile. And while you can throw a thousand interceptors at a missile and almost certainly shoot it down, the only way you’re downing a million drones is with a million interceptors. A swarm of autonomous drones is far more difficult to stop than a single nuclear missile, even though they will cause comparable levels of damage.
It’s quite possible that we are witnessing nuclear weapons being made obsolete. That’s how transformative drone warfare is becoming. Oh, and just for fun, while nukes are confined to a handful of countries, anyone can get in on the drone swarm game. Countries can build drone swarms without running afoul of the NPT and getting themselves sanctioned to hell and back or invaded. Drones also don’t require exotic and difficult to obtain fissile materials.
Proliferation experts have long worried about futures where dozens of countries have nuclear weapons. We’re approaching a point where any country can have the power of a nuclear bomb without having to go down the path of Iran or North Korea. Imagine a hundred nations, each with a drone swarm of comparable destructive power to a modest nuclear arsenal. That’s probably where we are headed.