Russia can’t even make its own drones - it needs Iran.

Russia received Shahed design work from Iran, and IIRC may have received some manufactured drones as well early on, but my understanding is that at least the Shahed-style drones that it is using now are indigenously-manufactured and have some modifications. We know where the factory is.

kagis

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HESA_Shahed_136

Russia has made much use of the Shahed 136/Geran-2 in its invasion of Ukraine, especially in strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure, and mass-produces its own version.

The U.S. Army unclassified worldwide equipment guide states that the Shahed 136 design supports an aerial reconnaissance option,[19][20] although no cameras were noted in the Geran-2 in Russian service.[21]

Geran-2 is the name of the weapon in Russian service and later versions manufactured in Russia.[15][34] Russia has significantly hardened and upgraded the Geran-2 from the Iranian design over many iterations, and has become independent of Iran in its development and manufacturing.[35][37]

By October 2022, a Times of Israel correspondent noted that the Iranian navigation system made from civilian components had been replaced with a Russian manufactured flight control unit and microprocessors, using the Russian GLONASS satellite navigation system rather than US civilian grade GPS, seemingly improving its loitering munition capability.[38][39] Geran-2 has labeling and paint color matching Russian rather than Iranian munitions,[40] some painted black for night operations.[36] No cameras or short-range sensors were noted in 2022.[21]

By November 2022, Russia and Iran had agreed to the Russian manufacture of the munition, with Iran exporting key components.[40][41] The Russian manufacturing facility is in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone, Tatarstan, with a target of building 6,000 Geran-2s by summer 2025.[42][43]

In July 2023, UK based Conflict Armament Research studied the remains of two Geran-2s used in Ukraine, concluding they were a new variant manufactured in Russia. They found “major differences in the airframe construction and in the internal units” compared to earlier examples studied, including a fuselage now made of fiberglass over woven carbon fiber rather than lightweight honeycomb. A third of the components showed manufacturing dates from 2020 to 2023, and three Russian components showed dates from January to March 2023. Twelve components showed dates after the start of the invasion in February 2022. Some internal modules were the same as in other Russian weapon systems, including the Kometa satellite navigation module.[44][45]

The Russian-manufactured Geran-2 is believed to have a “state-of-art antenna interference suppression” system that suppresses jamming of the satellite navigation position signal, designed by Iran using seven transceivers for input and an FPGA and three microcontrollers to analyse and suppress any electronic warfare emissions.[46] As of late September 2023, Russian forces have reportedly started packing warheads with tungsten ball shrapnel, similar to the M30A1 and M30A2 series of GMLRS warheads. According to Ukrainian officials the Russian modifications included “new warheads (tungsten shrapnel), engines, batteries, servomotors and bodies”.[47]

As of October 2023, Russia had significantly hardened and upgraded the Geran-2 in several iterations, though the authors of an occasional paper in 2024 estimated this had increased the production cost from $30,000 to about $80,000. One such upgrade is for a scout Geran-2 to conduct an electromagnetic spectrum survey, transmitting back to assist in safer route planning for follow-on munitions.[35]

In May 2024, a version of the Geran-2 with a heavier 90 kg warhead was reported. This version has relocated internals and a smaller fuel tank, so has a reduced range likely greater than 1,000 kilometres (620 mi), still capable of reaching all areas of Ukraine. A 52 kg thermobaric warhead option was also reported. This version may be painted black for night operations.[34][36] By May 2025, the 90 kg warhead version had been widely deployed, particularly against Ukrainian electricity infrastructure.[48]

In September 2024, Ukrainian sources reported that the remains of a shot down Geran 2 included a Starlink satellite communications system providing internet connectivity over Ukraine, presumably to support real time video or electromagnetic spectrum surveys. Previously communication experiments had been conducted with 4G modems on the Ukrainian mobile phone network.[49][50]

In May 2025, The Kyiv Independent quoted Ukrainian mobile air defense sources stating that at night the drone had started avoiding strong light sources en-route, prompting air defense units to use some night-vision devices instead of searchlights.[51] In June 2025, Defence Intelligence of Ukraine was reported to have examined a new type of Geran-2, which they called the MS series, which had an infrared camera and a Nvidia Jetson based computer capable of video processing and autonomously finding targets. It also had a radio modem capable of transmitting video and telemetry. This new drone has been used to scout routes prior to other attacks, scanning for mobile air defence units.[52]

As of late spring 2025 Russia has been producing around 170 Geran-2 drones per day, with indication that a total of around 26,000 Gerans were produced by Yelabuga drone factory.[53][54][55] Defense Intelligence of Ukraine estimates 40,000 Geran-2 and 24,000 cheaper Gerbera decoy drones are planned to be manufactured in 2025.[56]

All that being said, I don’t disagree with the broader point that Russia has gone into serious decline as a weapons exporter. I remember seeing someone — maybe a Perun video — showing shifting marketshare.